Return on ad spend 2.1× in the last 7 days, over the 2.0× target. Spend $53,441 of $270,000, on course to come in under.
Spent in November, to Nov 7
$53,441
At today's budgets the month ends at $233,991; at the last 7 days' spend, $229,034.
Where the month is likely to endThe planTo Nov 7
Steve
Orders are up on last year, but on more spend, and every store sale now comes back at a lower MER than it did then, with the ads running just under your ROAS target. The choice that matters most this month is to find out what Google really brings before moving money, because the store's own total says it brings well under the orders it is credited with.
To 90 days
The October memo, on figures to Sep 30, as Steve's rules would have written it on the figures as they stood then, made no choices. None asked for a step.
No lift test has finished since, so the figures here moved with these choices; they do not show what the choices did.
Since Oct 25, store sales after refunds per ad dollar across the account is , against before.
Taken apart by campaign: the campaigns themselves moved it up , and spend moving between them up .
The biggest change the deep dive priced: Meta sent to the home page, the money buys less since Oct 25: about (likely to ) a month if it holds.
The last 28 days, and the same 28 days a year ago
Orders as your store counted them.
| Row | Spend | ROAS | MER | New customers' share | Cost per order | Store orders a day | Orders, against last year | Spend, against last year | Orders over the year, against the year before | ROAS | Monthly budget | On course to spend this month | New customers' share, at least |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 28 days | $211,872 | 1.97 | 2.97 | 64% | $30.13 | 376.75 | |||||||
| Same 28 days last year | 1.81 | 3.29 | 65% | $33.19 | 255.36 | ||||||||
| Against last year | 48% | 63% | 51% | ||||||||||
| Your goal | 2.00 | $270,000 | $233,991 |
Each network's response curve: what its spend 20% lower, or 20%, 50% and 100% higher, likely brings in December
Orders as your store counted them.
| Row | Change | Spend a day | Spend a month | Extra spend a month | Sales a month | Extra in sales a month | Likely at least | Likely at most | The next dollar returns | Return on the extra spend | The most a day its weeks spent | Where the next dollar returns the floor, a day | Likely from | Likely to | Brings, against what the store credits it with | Likely from | Likely to | What the next dollar must return to pay for the goods |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta now | $2,728 | $189,800 | 1.41 | $2,718 | $1,736 | $1,137 | $3,470 | 1.25 | 0.89 | 1.95 | ||||||||
| Meta −20% | -20.0% | $67,700 | -$16,900 | -$24,800 | -$30,400 | -$18,900 | 1.53 | |||||||||||
| Meta +20% | 20% | $101,500 | $16,900 | $23,000 | $17,000 | $29,200 | 1.32 | |||||||||||
| Meta +50% | 50% | $126,900 | $42,300 | $55,000 | $40,000 | $70,900 | 1.21 | |||||||||||
| Meta +100% | 100% | $169,100 | $84,600 | $103,400 | $73,500 | $136,200 | 1.09 | |||||||||||
| Google now | $2,564 | $166,900 | 1.89 | $2,575 | $8,780 | $1,557 | $1,844,906 | 0.53 | 0.17 | 0.99 | ||||||||
| Google −20% | -20.0% | $63,600 | -$15,900 | -$30,300 | -$33,900 | -$24,100 | 1.93 | |||||||||||
| Google +20% | 20% | $95,400 | $15,900 | $29,700 | $23,100 | $33,900 | 1.85 | |||||||||||
| Google +50% | 50% | $119,200 | $39,700 | $73,400 | $55,900 | $84,600 | 1.81 | |||||||||||
| Google +100% | 100% | $159,000 | $79,500 | $144,300 | $106,800 | $168,900 | 1.76 | |||||||||||
| TikTok now | $2,343 | $89,500 | 0.79 | $3,152 | $293 | $158 | $337 | 1.13 | 0.91 | 1.20 | ||||||||
| TikTok −20% | -20.0% | $58,100 | -$14,500 | -$11,900 | -$14,600 | -$9,360 | 0.85 | |||||||||||
| TikTok +20% | 20% | $87,100 | $14,500 | $11,100 | $8,520 | $14,100 | 0.74 | |||||||||||
| TikTok +50% | 50% | $108,900 | $36,300 | $26,500 | $20,100 | $34,300 | 0.68 | |||||||||||
| TikTok +100% | 100% | $145,200 | $72,600 | $49,900 | $37,200 | $66,300 | 0.61 | |||||||||||
| Every network now | $7,634 | $446,200 | ||||||||||||||||
| Every network −20% | -20.0% | $189,300 | -$47,300 | -$67,000 | -$74,000 | -$56,900 | 1.46 | 1.42 | ||||||||||
| Every network +20% | 20% | $284,000 | $47,300 | $63,800 | $53,400 | $71,600 | 1.32 | 1.35 | ||||||||||
| Every network +50% | 50% | $355,000 | $118,300 | $154,900 | $129,000 | $175,200 | 1.25 | 1.31 | ||||||||||
| Every network +100% | 100% | $473,300 | $236,700 | $297,600 | $245,100 | $341,200 | 1.17 | 1.26 | ||||||||||
| Floor | 1.67 |
The most the curves would spend in December at each target inside your monthly budget, spread where the next dollar returns most, with Google held at today's budgets
Orders as your store counted them.
| Row | ROAS | Spend in December | Sales in December | Likely at least | Likely at most | ROAS | Extra spend in December | Extra in sales in December | Return on the extra spend | Cost of each extra dollar of sales | Budget a day now | Budget a day in the plan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At 2.20x | 2.20 | $231,800 | $506,600 | $492,100 | $522,500 | 2.19 | ||||||
| At 2.00x | 2.00 | $234,800 | $508,900 | $494,900 | $524,800 | 2.17 | ||||||
| At 1.80x | 1.80 | $234,800 | $508,900 | $494,200 | $525,600 | 2.17 | ||||||
| At 1.70x | 1.70 | $234,800 | $508,900 | $494,500 | $524,400 | 2.17 | ||||||
| Today's budgets as they have been spending | $234,800 | $508,000 | 2.16 | |||||||||
| The target's plan against spending now | $27.22 | $890 | ||||||||||
| Meta a day, at 2.00x | $2,800 | $2,800 | ||||||||||
| TikTok a day, at 2.00x | $2,400 | $2,400 | ||||||||||
| Google a day, at 2.00x | $2,650 | $2,650 |
Where the money went over the last 28 days, and the share the curves would give each network
Orders as your store counted them.
| Row | Spend | Share of the money | Share the curves give it | ROAS | New customers' share | The next dollar returns | Orders the store credits it with | Orders the store's total says it brings | Likely at least | Likely at most | Brings, against its credit | Budget a month | Extra in sales a month | Likely at least | Likely at most | Chance it brings more | More than with the hold | Budget now | Budget planned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta | $75,662 | 36% | 39% | 2.21 | 58% | 1.41 | |||||||||||||
| $71,467 | 34% | 34% | 2.43 | 64% | 1.89 | ||||||||||||||
| TikTok | $64,742 | 31% | 27% | 1.19 | 82% | 0.79 | |||||||||||||
| Google, the store's total | 2,938 | 1,552 | 513 | 2,923 | 0.53 | ||||||||||||||
| Same money, Google held | $243,350 | $1,290 | -$1,550 | $4,360 | 73% | ||||||||||||||
| Same money, on the curves alone | $243,350 | $49,200 | $35,800 | $64,800 | 100% | $47,900 | |||||||||||||
| Meta a day | $2,800 | $3,050 | |||||||||||||||||
| TikTok a day | $2,400 | $2,150 | |||||||||||||||||
| Google a day | $2,650 | $2,650 |
Spend by stage of the funnel over the last 28 days: finding new buyers, past buyers, and brand searches
Orders as your store counted them.
| Row | Spend | Share of the money | ROAS | New customers' share | Cost per order |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finding new buyers | $188,119 | 89% | 1.82 | 79% | |
| Past buyers | $20,264 | 9.6% | 3.03 | 7.1% | |
| Brand searches | $3,489 | 1.6% | 4.11 | 74% | |
| Win back past buyers | $20,264 | 3.03 | 7.1% |
Last year's peaks and this year's, from your store's own orders
Orders as your store counted them.
| Row | Store orders a day | MER | Spend a day | Orders a day, against the four weeks before | Spend a day, against the four weeks before | The week after, against the four weeks before | Raise weighed, from last year's days | Raise on your calendar | Against the year's average, growth taken out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Black Friday to Cyber Monday ahead | 20% | ||||||||
| Black Friday to Cyber Monday last year | 320 | 3.54 | $4,654 | 21% | 4.3% | 4.4% | |||
| The four weeks before Black Friday to Cyber Monday last year | 264 | 3.52 | $4,461 | ||||||
| February ahead | |||||||||
| February last year | 319 | 3.02 | $6,335 | 7.6% | 0.7% | 2.8% | |||
| The four weeks before February last year | 297 | 2.80 | $6,289 | ||||||
| January | 296 | 1.9% | |||||||
| February | 319 | 7.7% | |||||||
| March | 314 | 3.8% | |||||||
| April | 291 | -6.0% | |||||||
| May | 307 | -2.9% | |||||||
| June | 309 | -4.3% | |||||||
| July | 319 | -3.3% | |||||||
| August | 341 | 1.3% | |||||||
| September | 346 | 0.4% | |||||||
| October | 365 | 3.7% | |||||||
| November | 269 | -3.3% | |||||||
| December | 287 | 0.9% |
Your past sales against the four weeks before each, from your store's orders
Orders as your store counted them.
| Row | Extra orders | Of them, first orders | First orders' share of the extra | First orders' share on usual days | Order value, lower by | Order value lower by, from | to | Extra sales | Orders the week after lost | Profit after the goods, sale days and the week after | Your margin | Sales read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Black Friday to Cyber Monday, Nov 28 to Dec 1 | 223 | 75 | 34% | 45% | 13% | $3,070 | -82 | $1,040 | ||||
| Spring sale, Mar 14 to 17 | 193 | 20 | 10% | 45% | 12% | $840 | 187 | -$8,340 | ||||
| Anniversary sale, Aug 22 to 25 | 271 | 79 | 29% | 44% | 12% | $4,990 | -24 | -$2,310 | ||||
| All of them | 688 | 175 | 25% | 44% | 12% | 13% | $8,900 | -$9,610 | 60% | 3 |
Orders the networks are credited with and ad spend, by country and region, 42 days
The sample's orders by region are the orders the networks are credited with, not the store's own orders the deep dive reads.
| Row | Store orders | Ad spend | Share of the orders | Share of the spend | MER | Against the whole account | Likely from | Likely to | Lowest region against the account | Highest region against the account | Test budget a day | Days | Test costs | Its share of the spend there | Its share across the account |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 5,629 | $176,022 | 56% | 56% | 1.91 | 1.00 | |||||||||
| Canada | 4,389 | $137,392 | 44% | 44% | 1.90 | 1.00 | |||||||||
| Ontario | 1,520 | $49,371 | 15% | 16% | 1.84 | 0.97 | 0.93 | 1.00 | |||||||
| California | 993 | $33,346 | 9.9% | 11% | 1.80 | 0.94 | 0.90 | 0.98 | |||||||
| British Columbia | 936 | $28,666 | 9.3% | 9.1% | 1.95 | 1.02 | 0.98 | 1.07 | |||||||
| New York | 779 | $22,990 | 7.8% | 7.3% | 2.04 | 1.07 | 1.02 | 1.12 | |||||||
| Quebec | 680 | $20,458 | 6.8% | 6.5% | 1.96 | 1.03 | 0.98 | 1.08 | |||||||
| Texas | 646 | $20,722 | 6.4% | 6.6% | 1.86 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 1.03 | |||||||
| Alberta | 591 | $18,839 | 5.9% | 6.0% | 1.88 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 1.04 | |||||||
| Florida | 520 | $15,675 | 5.2% | 5.0% | 1.97 | 1.03 | 0.98 | 1.09 | |||||||
| Washington | 420 | $12,540 | 4.2% | 4.0% | 1.98 | 1.04 | 0.98 | 1.11 | |||||||
| Illinois | 377 | $12,132 | 3.8% | 3.9% | 1.84 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 1.03 | |||||||
| Massachusetts | 320 | $9,106 | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.08 | 1.09 | 1.01 | 1.17 | |||||||
| Pennsylvania | 300 | $9,240 | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.92 | 1.01 | 0.93 | 1.08 | |||||||
| Colorado | 243 | $7,720 | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.86 | 0.98 | 0.90 | 1.06 | |||||||
| Oregon | 235 | $7,852 | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.79 | 0.94 | 0.86 | 1.02 | |||||||
| Manitoba | 225 | $6,273 | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.12 | 1.11 | 1.02 | 1.21 | |||||||
| Minnesota | 203 | $6,258 | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.92 | 1.01 | 0.92 | 1.10 | |||||||
| Michigan | 200 | $6,141 | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.93 | 1.01 | 0.92 | 1.11 | |||||||
| North Carolina | 198 | $6,062 | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.94 | 1.02 | 0.93 | 1.11 | |||||||
| Georgia | 195 | $6,237 | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.87 | 0.98 | 0.89 | 1.07 | |||||||
| Nova Scotia | 170 | $5,763 | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.74 | 0.91 | 0.82 | 1.00 | |||||||
| Saskatchewan | 159 | $4,626 | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.03 | 1.06 | 0.95 | 1.17 | |||||||
| New Brunswick | 108 | $3,395 | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.90 | 1.00 | 0.88 | 1.12 | |||||||
| Every region | 1.91 | 0.91 | 1.11 |
A Google lift test, as Steve would plan it
Orders as your store counted them, by region.
| Row | Spend held back over the test | Held back a day | Smallest drop it can see, against the store's credit there |
|---|---|---|---|
| The test | $10,836 | $774 | 22% |
A raise of 20% a day over Black Friday to Cyber Monday, on the account's curves
As the curves count them, before any lift the sale itself brings.
| Row | Raise | Extra spend | Extra in sales | Likely at least | Likely at most | Return on the extra spend | Return on the extra, with last year's lift | Your target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The raise | 20% | $6,110 | $8,230 | $7,060 | $9,260 | 1.35 | 1.63 | 2.00 |
What the deep dive found over 42 days, priced in dollars a month
As each finding counts it: orders as your store counted them, or results and sales as the networks count them.
| Row | Orders in it | Spend in it | Dollars a month | Likely at least | Likely at most | Sales per ad dollar, as the networks claim them | Store sales after refunds per ad dollar | Weeks read | The rest's store sales after refunds per ad dollar | Store sales after refunds kept by moving its spend, a month | Kept, likely at least | Kept, likely at most | Sales a month | Likely at least | Likely at most | Sales kept by moving its spend, a month | In it | The rest it is compared with | In it | The rest it is compared with |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In British Columbia | 1,408 | $27,700 | $27,200 | $28,200 | 3.02 | 1.47 | 6 | 2.17 | $11,200 | $11,000 | $11,400 | 58% | 3.0% | |||||||
| With the code CUP71 | 631 | $15,300 | $15,100 | $15,400 | 6 | 6.0% | 68% | |||||||||||||
| Meta aged 25 to 64 | $89,100 | $77,100 | $67,200 | $87,100 | 6 | $154,300 | $134,400 | $174,100 | $22.92 | $50.70 | ||||||||||
| TikTok | 1,723 | $20,000 | $19,100 | $20,800 | 6 | 23% | 0.4% | |||||||||||||
| Meta on Android phones | $35,700 | $8,860 | $7,290 | $10,400 | 6 | $17,700 | $14,600 | $20,900 | $33.65 | $21.95 | ||||||||||
| Meta in Facebook Feed | $36,300 | $7,230 | $5,720 | $8,730 | 6 | $14,500 | $11,400 | $17,500 | $31.17 | $22.49 | ||||||||||
| From the ad "Price per cup" | 1,424 | $6,110 | $6,030 | $6,180 | 3.21 | 2.86 | 6 | 1.65 | 91% | 9.0% | ||||||||||
| From searches for "northbound coffee" | 238 | $3,360 | $2,650 | $4,080 | 6 | 34% | 1.0% |
What changed inside the deep dive's 42 days, each from the day it moved, priced in dollars a month
As each change counts it: orders as your store counted them, or results and sales as the networks count them; each against its own figure before.
| Row | Spend since | Orders since | Dollars a month | Likely at least | Likely at most | Of it, from spend moving between slices | Sales a month | Likely at least | Likely at most | Of it, sales from spend moving between slices | Since | Before | The rest since | The rest before | Since | Before | The rest since | The rest before | Moved by the slices themselves | Moved by spend moving between them |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | $31,200 | $18,700 | $15,900 | $21,400 | 1.60 | 1.88 | 2.08 | 1.51 | ||||||||||||
| Oct 25 | $40,600 | $6,510 | $5,470 | $7,500 | $13,000 | $10,900 | $15,000 | $41.87 | $38.73 | $23.66 | $30.16 | |||||||||
| Oct 25 | $106,100 | $52,300 | $39,100 | $65,900 | $4,550 | 1.87 | 1.64 | 0.21 | 0.02 |
The October memo's figures, against the same since
Spend as the networks report it, ROAS as they credit it, store orders as your store counted them; a deep dive finding as it counts.
| Row | ROAS | Spend a day | Store orders a day | ROAS | Changes made through Steve |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before the memo | 1.82 | $6,710 | 345 | ||
| Since the memo | 1.97 | $7,570 | 377 | 0 |